Everyday Killings in Mexico Drop 37% During President Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The average count of everyday homicides monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent official data. However, security analysts have cautioned that murder figures could fail to point to enhanced national stability.

Marked Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we’ve had in these past months is remarkably important,” the President stated, explaining that the previous month the lowest number of homicides were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly military operations to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central pillars of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true given the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for assessing the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to properly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was also concerning because it could mask periods when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to construct a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas said.